What Does The Rise In Sea Levels Mean For The Caribbean

By Sanjay Bhagwandeen

Will we act in the interest of our people who are depending on us or will we allow the path of greed and selfishness to sow the seeds of our common destruction?

On August 9, 2021, the Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change released the first part of their sixth assessment of the climate crisis. Years in the making, the report once again warned of our dire circumstances. Within the nearly four thousand page breakdown of the physical science driving climate chaos lies a particularly disturbing section. One that illuminates just what's at stake if we continue on a path of unhindered extraction and emissions.

Despite the many differences between Caribbean nations, climate change poses a serious threat to us all, making us all similar to our susceptibility to changes in climate which has begun affecting millions of people. Due to their size and location, the Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are particularly susceptible to the impacts of climate change as most of these developing economies rely on tourism, agriculture and fishing which are seeing drastic changes due to the changing climate.

One major effect of the changing climate is rising sea levels. So how are rising sea levels affecting the region? What has changed in recent years? And how are countries across the Caribbean trying to cope with it?

Global sea levels are rising as a result of human-caused global warming, with recent rates being unprecedented over the past 2,500-plus years. Sea level rise is caused primarily by two factors related to global warming: the added water from melting ice sheets and glaciers, and the expansion of seawater as it warms. The first graph tracks the change in global sea level since 1993, as observed by satellites. Additionally, a third, much smaller contributor to sea level rise is a decline in the amount of liquid water on land—aquifers, lakes and reservoirs, rivers, soil moisture. This shift of liquid water from land to ocean is largely due to groundwater pumping.

Global average sea level has risen 8 - 9 inches (21 - 24 centimetres) since 1880. In 2021, global sea level set a new record high - 97 mm (3.8 inches) above 1993 levels.

Rising sea levels are expected to cause coastal erosion due to climate change. According to NASA, the sea level is expected to increase by 0.3 - 1 metre (1 - 4 ft) by 2050. By 2100, sea level in the Caribbean is expected to rise by 1.4 m.

Rise in sea level could impact coastal communities of the Caribbean if they are less than 3 metres (10 ft) above the sea. In Latin America and the Caribbean, it is expected that 29–32 million people may be affected by the sea level rise because they live below this threshold.

Coastal losses range between US$940 million to $1.2 billion in the 22 largest coastal cities in Latin America and the Caribbean. Main sources of income, such as tourism, will also be affected because many of the main tourist attractions such as beaches and hotels are near the coast. In 2004, a study reported that 12 million tourists had visited the Caribbean. Damage to the beaches can also negatively impact sea turtles that nest in the Caribbeans. Moreover, the islands serve as nesting sites and habitats for sea turtles, which are all facing endangerment due to coastal erosion and changes in habitat at all stages of the life cycle. Sea level rise can impact where sea turtles nest and their nesting behaviour.

Additionally, exacerbated drought conditions caused by climate change are only compounding the impacts of rising sea levels with drinking water accessibility being altered. As the sea levels rise, it raises the water table with it causing salt water to contaminate underground aquifers which are a vital source of drinking water. High sea level rise also makes it easier for run off water from rains to reach the ocean before they get the chance to seep into soils. In addition, rising sea levels have also caused significant coastal erosion in a region where 65% of the Caribbean population live within 2 miles to the coast. If you scan a map, almost all Caribbean capitals are directly on a coastline. This means that even small rises in sea level can have devastating impacts on infrastructure, the economy and a lot more. Finally, one must mention the devastating impact of sargassum seaweed which has been a slowly growing problem that many outside the Caribbean may not have realized. Since 2011, blooms of sargassum seaweed have been drifting into the Caribbean Sea. Fuelled by warmer Atlantic Ocean temperatures, this seaweed drifts onto shores in the Caribbean and further into Latin America where it blocks sunlight from marine animals, deoxygenates the water and causes aesthetic damage to beaches that rely on tourism. Before sargassum, moderate amounts of seaweed was a blessing not a curse but the overwhelming amounts being seen are wreaking havoc on an unprecedented scale.

At the same time, migration has added pressure on public services and exacerbated the risks associated with natural disasters and climate change. The Caribbean is no stranger to that, and with rising sea levels, the displacement of people in Latin America and the Caribbean is only being inflamed. The scientific community anticipates an increase in the intensity and frequency in the coming decades of extreme events such as tropical storms, wildfires, floods, droughts and heat waves that affect human health, livelihoods and ecosystems.

Likewise, slow onset climate change effects such as glacial retreat that affects water availability or coastal erosion due to rising sea levels, added to pre-existing vulnerabilities, and influence migratory patterns.

Quantifying the number of people displaced by climate change in the coming decades is a complex exercise given that climate models have evolved and the motivations for emigrating are multiple.

In 2018, the Groundswell report projected that by 2050, in sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia and Latin America alone, 143 million people could be displaced within their countries due to the effects of climate change, with the poorest and most vulnerable being the most affected.

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With these changes affecting this fragile region, the cost of inaction is high. Projections indicate that losses could total US$22 billion annually by 2050. That figure represents 10% of the current Caribbean economy.

Resilience measures are also being applied to the region’s coastlines to combat the harshest parts of coastal erosion. The construction of seawalls, levies and riverbank hardening has seen unprecedented funding. Nonetheless, although these manoeuvres are effective, they are often out of the reach of the smallest Caribbean economies. That is why some like Grenada and Dominica have resorted to mangrove conservation programmes.

On the contrary, much more needs to be done to impede the impending doom with the financing the biggest culprit facing adaptation measures as the current climate pledges lead us to a climate catastrophe.

Much action is needed now to change the bleak future which lies ahead and we all have our role to play!

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